A City or Wall Street worker of the 1980s who saw today’s financial markets would be, most likely, gobsmacked. For the most part, the ‘gut feels’ and instinct-based trading of yesteryear have been replaced by intricate computer-based financial modeling and statistical analysis.

Similarly, looking ahead to the likely transactions, executions, insights and analytics of advertising buys of the year 2020, we see an equally seismic shift. Currently brands and advertisers are just scratching at the surface of what data has to offer. In seven years’ time, data – and its mathematical analysis – will rule the roost.

By the year 2020, the skills of the ‘quant experts’ that financial markets have employed for many years will be used to transform the buying and selling of media. Sophisticated algorithms and forecast modeling will be widely used on both the demand and the supply sides, bringing down the cost of advertising and ensuring results will be quickly measurable. Gut feelings will give way to data provided in real time. 

This type of forecasting, based on proven mathematical models, is the way of the future in digital media and is far superior to the ad-hoc sampling that is most prevalent in 2013. So what do brands and media agencies need to do now to prepare for this brave new world?

The answer, of course, is data. Data is to media what location is to real estate. Simply put, it is the key right now to building an advertising environment that uses the amazing capabilities of algorithms to forecast and measure the value of every transaction.

And so, media owners and advertisers should be taking steps right now to own all the data associated with their consumers. They need a safe, secure place to house that information, as well as the capabilities to derive insights and value from all facets and attributes associated with their business: audience profiles, device preferences and habits, environments, creative executions and performance. While at the same time, they need to educate consumers about the benefits of a more targeted, data-led approach and address their concerns – such as through initiatives like Your Online Choices.

In addition, we’re already seeing a significant level of fragmentation across multiple devices and this will only increase in the years ahead. As the industry grapples with the challenge of making money out of mobile and targeting consumers on multiple devices in meaningful and measureable ways, data and analytics become even more important.

The powerful combination of maths and data, algorithms and analysis, are critical to the three phases of advertising: pre-campaign forecasting and predicting; real time analysis of campaign effectiveness; and post campaign recommendations and insights. As the number and variety of attributes associated with all marketing campaigns continue to rise, and the measures of success on various devices diverge, the most advanced algorithms and analysis will be needed in order to define success.

By making mathematics and measurement - and data and analytics - central to their business today, publishers and advertisers will be set up for greater success in 2020. This means both also need to choose their partners wisely, as no company can hope to accomplish all this alone. Who, they should ask, can they trust to keep their data and their brand safe?

After all, many things will be different in 2020, but consumer trust in a brand will always be paramount. No amount of maths will change that.

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